A common question for many Mexicans in the past months has been “Why is it that the inflation index (INPC) keeps showing moderate price increases while everyone struggles to make it with the same budget?” We present some of the facts that allow for an explanation of why inflation as measured by INEGI (Mexican Statistics Agency) could be understated. Continue reading Why Mexico INEGI´s reported inflation may be understated
The perception that LatAm as a region is less fundamentally exposed to the Brexit fiasco than other emerging markets is borne out by the data. Brazil and Colombia conduct a large amount of trade with the U.K. and the rest of Europe as a share of their total Continue reading Brexit and Latin American Exports
We explain why we think that recession odds for Mexico are higher than most think. Car exports, gross fixed investment and cyclical indicators all stood in recession ground according to latest data. On the policy side, fiscal and monetary tightening are a no-no and we all know Donald Trump will not help ahead if his winning chances spike. Continue reading Is Mexico Heading For Recession?
Mexican Bolsa IPC 29/06/2016 The Mexican IPC index moved to the downside, out of consolidation, pushed by the negative sentiment caused by the Brexit event reaching the 43,961 level, at this level there is an important area of support between 44,150 and 43,850. … Continue reading MEXICAN BOLSA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- June, 29, 2016
Last week, we wrote about the effects that deliberate cuts in Venezuelan imports could have on its neighbors. We are extending that analysis to see how the major economic crises in the region, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela, affect trade and growth in other countries.
We review here GDP growth dynamics in Colombia, Chile, Brazil and Mexico. In the first quarter of the year, we observed uneven performances throughout the region. Positive surprise: Brazil. Negative surprise: Colombia. In between: Chile and Mexico. Continue reading Latin America’s Uneven Q1 2016 GDP Growth
The humanitarian disaster and the increasing social unrest make hard to believe that Maduro’s regime will prove long lasting. But in the meantime, food shortages and starving people are becoming more and more common topics in media articles on cash-strapped Venezuela Continue reading Venezuela’s Shock And Impact On LatAm Neighbors