The possibility that AMLO wins in 2018 is significant. And he, as Trump or Sanders, represents an anti-establishment sentiment that has gained strength in recent years. The historical low approval rates of the president finally manifested themselves in the recent local elections on June 5.Although the “U.S. Trump” is the biggest concern for the economy in the short term, the “Mexican Trump” could bring more noise in the long run. Continue reading “Mexican Trump” Noise
Summary: Venezuela will likely default in November or April. We present here some of the recent events taking placed in the troubled LatAm economy. The IMF just revised its forecast for Venezuela’s economic growth this week. Economic activity will fall 10% in 2016 – not 8%, as previously stated. Two questions in the air: Will China save Venezuela? Will it demand Maduro to step down?
Continue reading Venezuela: Default Looms
The humanitarian disaster and the increasing social unrest make hard to believe that Maduro’s regime will prove long lasting. But in the meantime, food shortages and starving people are becoming more and more common topics in media articles on cash-strapped Venezuela Continue reading Venezuela’s Shock And Impact On LatAm Neighbors
Keiki Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) are going to face each other in Peru’s presidential election runoff. Local polls are divided on whether Kuczynski can defeat Keiko on June 5. Only thousands of votes will decide the winner, who will be the one that gets closer to the center in the political spectrum. Continue reading The Peruvian Presidential Runoff: The Race to the Center
For most Latin American countries, the label of “democracy” is a work in progess. Over recent years, the region has been making efforts to strengthen their institutions in order to consolidate democratic transitions. When one begins to believe in political stability and institutional resilience, then articles such as Andrés Sepulveda’s telling How to Hack an Election and describing how he rigged votes across the region, or #PanamaPapers happen. Continue reading How to Hack an Election, #PanamaPapers and LatAm’s Economic Recession Could be an Explosive Mix
Writing on Brazil has become an exercise in futility. With the ever-accelerating tempo of political developments, articles on the country’s political crisis must constantly be updated and predictions seem anachronistic within a week’s time. Continue reading Dilma’s Impeachment: Fear & Loathing in Brasilia
Whether it is a hard landing or not, China’s economic growth is slowing down. This has had and will continue to have implications for the global economy, and LatAm is no exception. However, China’s weaker economic dynamism compromises the growth model of several countries in the region. Continue reading Consequences of China’s Weaker Economic Growth for LatAm