Heatmap Weekly Summary (July 22nd)

Weekly update and analysis on what is happening in our all-LatAm ADR sample
  • Stock Top Gainers: GOL +13.3%, CIG +7.5%, SBS +7.0%, CRESY+6.7% and BAK +5.9%.
  • Stock top losers: NTL -10.6%, TS -5.5%, AVH -3.9%, GGAL -3.7% and PAM -3.5%.

Main LatAm markets continued rallying as the IMF revised upward GDP growth

The main LatAm equity markets closed higher: Brazil´s EWZ (NYSEARCA:EWZ) led gains increasing 2.6% followed by Chile´s ECH (NYSEARCA:ECH) up 2.0% and Mexico´s EWW (NYSEARCA:EWW) up 1.4%. During the week the IMF revised upward GDP growth estimates for Mexico and Brazil while expecting lower global growth.

On the flip side, Colombia, Argentina and Peru´s ETFs declined 0.7%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (NYSEARCA:ILF) closed 2.2% higher, 150 bps above the S&P´s 0.7% increase. The ILF´s 1-Month performance accumulates a 11.7% return.

indices 220716

 

Brazil continues uptrend and becomes best 6-Month performer in our country ETF sample

Brazil´s EWZ closed 2.6% up last week as IMF improves growth prospects and as rumors abound about asset divestitures and new investors entering stocks. The EWZ now has the best 6-month performance across our country sample, the ETF is up a stunning 81.7% in that period and 12.5% up in a 1-year time frame.

Gol (NYSE:GOL) posted the largest gain up 13.3% followed by Cemig (NYSE:CIG) up 7.5% and Sabesp (NYSE:SBS) 7.0% up. Only 4 out of our 22 Brazilian ADRs sample ended in the red, posting small losses, VALE (NYSE:VALE) -0.9%, CBD (NYSE:CBD) -0.3% and FBR (NYSE:FBR) -0.3%.

The IMF improved outlook for Brazil. The IMF increased by 50 bps its 2016 and 2017 GDP growth estimates to -3.3% and +0.5% respectively. The Fund sees consumer and business confidence to have bottomed and expects higher growth with 1Q16 contraction lower-than-expected.

CEMIG ended the week 7.5% up as it may sale its stake in LIGHT. Rumors continue about a proposal of Equatorial to acquire LIGHT, in which Cemig has a 32.6% stake valued at BRL 970 million.

Braskem (NYSE:BAK) ended the week 5.9% up with high volatility. During the week Odebrecht announced it pledged a stake in Braskem´s shares as credit collateral to complete its debt restructuring process.

Vale declined 0.9% as production numbers remained weak. Coal and pellets production declined 25.2% YoY and 17.9% YoY respectively, production was affected by indirect factors such as geological instability and environmental issues.

CPFL Energia (NYSE:CPF) edged up 0.9% on rumor of transaction at premium. Rumor is that stakeholder pension fund Previ is weighing to accept an offer from the Chinese State Grid for its 29.4% stake in CPFL at a roughly 11.0% premium to market price.

BRF (NYSE:BRFS) ended the week 2.2% up as it may IPO division. Word on the street is that the company may IPO its Sadia unit in 2017 with potential proceeds of up to $1.5 billion.

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) posted 4.1% weekly gain as asset divestiture continues. PBR is weighing offers for its fuel distribution subsidiary, BR Distribuidora, and may consider sharing control to get a better deal.

Marketing responsible for Rousseff´s campaign admitted they received funds illegally. The couple changed their original statement and now accepted to received $4.5 million illegally.

brazil 220716

 

Mexico´s EWW up 1.4% as IMF improves GDP growth outlook

The EWW ended 1.4% higher with 10 out of 12 of the ADRs in our Mexican sample posting weekly gains. Airports and airlines posted strong weekly returns.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (NASDAQ:OMAB) led gains increasing 4.8% followed by Femsa (NYSE:FMX) up 4.3% and Volaris (NYSE:VLRS) up 3.8%. Simec (NYSEMKT:SIM) and Banco Santander Mexico (NYSE:BSMX) were the only losers, down 2.7% and 1.1% respectively.

IMF improves outlook for Mexico. The IMF improved its 2016 growth estimates for Mexico by 10 bps to 2.5% and kept unchanged 2017´s prospects at 2.6%.

América Móvil (NYSE:AMX) edged up +0.7% despite intense competition. AT&T could bring 5G technology to Mexico before AMX and Telefonica and as soon as 2017.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (NYSE:ASR) closed the week up 3.1% on solid 2Q16 earnings. Revenues increased 16.7% YoY boosted by passenger traffic growth of 5.4% and non-aeronautical revenues growth of 11.7%. Strong non-aero revenues were supported by positive FX effect and terminal expansion. EBITDA was 18.4% YoY up to a 71.8% margin and earnings were 18.3% up YoY.

Bidding process of the new Mexico City airport terminal is underway. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed in 2017 and entails and investment of MXN 11.0 billion.

Automotive sector remains solid. AMDA increased its 2016 auto sales growth estimate by 100,000 units to 1.55 million vehicles. during the week automotive sector´s companies reported strong 2Q16 earnings, RASSINI´s bottom line increased +52.3% YoY and GISSA posted a +79.1% YoY earnings growth.

Inflation starts to pick up. Bi-weekly inflation in July increased 0.28% MoM to an annual inflation of 2.72%, the highest reading in four months, as regulated prices and energy costs increased. We wrote a note on the expected uptrend of inflation: WHY MEXICO INEGI´S REPORTED INFLATION MAY BE UNDERSTATED.

Pension funds´ AUM posted 1.1% MoM gain in June. The Funds showed a positive performance from gains in corporate and government bonds as well as in domestic and foreign equities. The ratio of foreign to domestic stocks decreased 24 bps to 1.7x.

MEXICO 220716

 

Chilean ETF up 2.0%

ECH closed 2.0% up, being the 2nd-largest winner in our LatAm country sample. Cencosud (NYSE:CNCO) led gains posting a +3.7% weekly return, followed by Corpbanca (NYSE:ITCB) +3.6% and Concha y Toro (NYSE:VCO) +3.4%. Only SQM (NYSE:SQM) and Endesa (EOSA) posted weekly declines down 2.7% and 0.6%.

Latam Airlines (NYSE:LFL) increased 2.4% as the company advances on Qatar Airlines deal. Latam Airlines scheduled an extraordinary shareholder´s meeting for August, 18, 2016 to vote on the sale of a 10% stake to Qatar Airlines.

SQM (NYSE:SQM) decreased 2.7%, as the expected date for a solution of legal proceedings is extended. Proceedings regarding the Atacama salt field are now expected to reach a final solution by 2017 vs previously expected by year-end.

Insurance companies and pension funds to invest in infrastructure. The Chilean Minister of finance expects that a bill that will allow insurance and pension funds´ companies to invest in infrastructure projects will finally be approved by the senate. The bill aims to reactivate the economy through higher investment in infrastructure and at the same time to offer investors options amid low yield environment.

Pension funds´ AUM posted 1.8% loss in June. The Funds showed a negative performance affected by foreign investments. Exposure to Fixed income increased 200 bps to 66.2%of AUM. Exposure to local equities increased 20 bps to 7.8% of AUM with the highest increase in the Services sector and the largest decline in Basic Materials.

Chile 220716

 

Argentina ETF down 0.4% as economic activity declines

ARGT ended the week 0.4% lower with 10 out of 16 stocks from our sample closing in the red.

Nortel (NYSE:NTL) extended losses posting the greatest weekly loss of our sample of 10.6%, followed by Tenaris (NYSE:TS) -5.5% and GF Galicia (NASDAQ:GGAL) -3.7%. Cresud (NASDAQ:CRESY), Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO) and Brasil Agro (NYSE:LND) posted the largest gains of our Argentinean sample up 6.7%, 5.3% and 5.1%.

Economic activity declined 0.9% YoY in 2Q16. The Central Bank sees inflation well anchored at 1.5% MoM by year-end and weights rate cut as current interest rate stands at 30.25%.

ARGT 220716

 

Andean markets adjust downwards

Colombia´s GXG (NYSEARCA:GXG) led losses declining 0.7%. Avianca (NYSE:AVH) fell the most in our Colombian sample losing 3.9% followed by Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) -3.7%.

The Peru fund, the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EPU), closed the week 0.3% lower with 4 out of 5 ADRs in our Peruvian sample closing down. Cementos Pacasmayo (NYSE:CPAC) declined 2.2% and Graña y Montero (NYSE:GRAM) -1.2%.

Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) declared $0.05 p/share quarterly dividend. The dividend is payable on August 25 and the record date is August 11.

andean 220716

Analyst: Roberto Barba, CFA

@Roberto_Bamar

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