The market is pricing that Venezuela will default in the coming months. With almost $2 billion in debt due in October, $3 billion in November and almost $4 billion in April 2017; default is only a matter of time. Venezuela’s economic decline will have a regional impact. Continue reading Venezuelan Collapse Poses a Threat to 17 Nations
Three days before the recent presidential election on October 25, Macri’s foreign policy chief said in an interview that if Macri won, “Argentina [would] change its way of relating to the world.” This is indeed happening.
Continue reading Argentina’s U-Turn Still Faces Challenges Ahead
Public debt in Latin America has soared since 2008. We picked the seven biggest economies in the region and analyzed government borrowing. Spoiler: debt is increasing rapidly and could force policy makers to cut spending drastically if further FX depreciation is seen.
Continue reading LATAM Government Debt: Brazil in the Spotlight
In a period of low global interest rates, where lending has been cheap for long, we take a glance to how credit ratings have evolved for LatAm issuers.
Continue reading Default Knocking on LatAm’s Door: Corporate Credit Ratings
Peru will change government this year. Ollanta Humala’s five-year administration will leave the economy expanding at decent rates despite a complicated global scenario, but also one of the worst corruption scandals in decades.
Continue reading Political Pipeline: Peru’s Presidential Election
The TPP is a multilateral agreement that establishes a free trade zone among 12 nations: USA, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei. We analyzed it from Mexico’s point of view. Continue reading The TPP from Mexico’s Point of View
S&P raised recently Argentina’s long-term local currency rating to B- from CCC+. Still, dollar-denominated debt remains rated as “Selective Default” despite progress being made with U.S. hedge funds to settle a dispute arising from the historic default of 2002. That pending, Argentina is the only Latin American country in default zone, but Venezuela is fast approaching. Continue reading LatAm Sovereign Credit Ratings Snapshot